Import Window Closed, Net Imports of Aluminum Hit New High in April [SMM Analysis]

SMM, May 29:
Primary Aluminum Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports in April 2025 reached approximately 250,500 mt, up 12.8% MoM and 14.6% YoY. From January to April, cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 634,300 mt, down 11.2% YoY.

Primary Aluminum Exports: Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that domestic primary aluminum exports in April 2025 were approximately 13,700 mt, up 54.6% MoM and 643.0% YoY. From January to April, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 34,500 mt, up approximately 139.6% YoY.

Net Primary Aluminum Imports: In April 2025, domestic net primary aluminum imports were 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, cumulative net primary aluminum imports totaled about 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY.
(The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

From the perspective of import source countries, the main sources of domestic primary aluminum imports in April 2025 were the Russian Federation, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, China, Iran, and other countries and regions. Among them, the total primary aluminum imports from Russia in April were approximately 227,000 mt, up 12.44% MoM again, accounting for 90.3% of March's imports. In addition, primary aluminum imports from China in March were approximately 2,300 mt, down 44.32% MoM. This portion was mainly aluminum ingots processed from Chinese alumina exported to Russia and then re-imported into the Chinese market. From the perspective of the origin of aluminum ingots, Russian aluminum ingots still dominated. Therefore, the total imports from Russia in April reached 228,600 mt, accounting for 91.26% of the total domestic primary aluminum imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminum imports are in a loss-making state, with import losses fluctuating around 1,000 yuan/mt. However, due to weak overseas demand and continuous destocking in the domestic market, overseas supplies are being stimulated to be shipped to China, entering the domestic spot market at an opportune time. Additionally, some processing plants have indicated an increase in manual processing orders on hand this year.

From the perspective of trade mode: In terms of the trade mode for primary aluminum imports in April, domestic primary aluminum imports operated at a loss with fluctuations. Suppliers' willingness to clear customs and ship to the Chinese market increased, and overseas supply in the spot market rose. In April, approximately 49 mt of barter trade was newly added.

SMM Commentary: Currently, aluminum prices still maintain the trend of overseas market outperforming domestic market. The domestic import window is closed, and import losses fluctuated at around 1,000 yuan/mt. Coupled with weak overseas demand and domestic processors' increased willingness to process under manuals due to cost considerations, it is expected that domestic net primary aluminum imports will remain high in May.